Flying into the Future: An Update on the Air Force’s NGAD Program

Amidst a race with near-peer adversaries for control of the skies in a potential future conflict, the Air Force’s Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program saw a tumultuous 2024 that, at times, had many in the defense industry wondering if the initiative for a sixth-generation fighter plane would see its completion.

Since its development in 2019, the priority for the NGAD program is to develop a “portfolio of technologies enabling air superiority.” This means that while the program is aimed at replacing the F-22 fighter jets, the Air Force is also looking at technologies developed within the NGAD program that would establish continued air dominance.

This article will look at developments to the NGAD program in 2024, congressional concerns for the program, and what to expect from NGAD in 2025.

To hear from leaders representing air programs such as NGAD, CCA, F/AXX, register for IDGA’s Air Dominance Summit this May. The two-day event brings together personnel from across the defense and aerospace communities, including the US Air Force, the US Navy, allied nations, industry, and academia, to discuss these key programs and other pressing air superiority topics.

2024 NGAD Updates

At the beginning of 2024, the expectation was that NGAD would continue as a research effort for several more years, with plans to acquire production aircraft or other systems around 2030.

However, by the Summer of 2024, Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall was forced to make certain concessions about the future of the program. One of which was cost.  With an estimated price tag of $300 million per aircraft—three times the cost of an F-35—the program's affordability and fleet size were under scrutiny.

As a result of these concerns, the Air Force paused the program and began exploring ways to simplify the NGAD design, including using a less complex, smaller adaptive engine, which could reduce costs while maintaining efficiency and range. This effort aligns with the program’s evolving concept, which now prioritizes optimizing the fighter to work seamlessly with Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA)—autonomous drone wingmen that joined the design discussion mid-development.

Through it all, Secretary Kendall stood by the program's importance, emphasizing the need for a sixth-generation fighter to ensure air superiority in future conflicts.

While a decision on the pause was expected by the end of 2024, President Trump’s election victory in November forced the Air Force to defer a decision on the future of NGAD to the Trump administration. As the outgoing Air Force Secretary, Frank Kendall opted not to finalize a strategy before leaving office, instead extending existing industry contracts to continue technology maturation and risk reduction. 

Congressional Concerns with NGAD

The latest Congressional Research Services (CRS) report on NGAD, published in January, points out several concerns Congress has with the program:

• Budget cuts: The FY2025 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) cut $30.9 million from the President’s budget request for NGAD, with the Senate Appropriations Committee recommending a further $557.1 million reduction to redirect funding to the Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) program.
• Rising costs: Concerns were raised about the program’s escalating costs and the Air Force’s reevaluation of NGAD, which have led to doubts about the service’s commitment to fielding advanced aircraft capable of ensuring air dominance in contested environments.
• Future programs: Congress expressed concerns about whether the $2.75 billion NGAD budget request aligns with the Air Force’s evolving needs, especially in light of its pause in contract awards and focus on rethinking program requirements.
• Transparency issues: Congress criticized the Air Force for combining NGAD and CCA funding into a single budget line, which limits visibility into the costs and performance of each program. Lawmakers directed the Air Force to create a separate CCA budget line starting in FY2026. 

What’s Next for NGAD

With the Air Force kicking a decision on NGAD down to the Trump administration, the future of the program remains murky. Especially as key figures like Elon Musk, who was appointed to a Department of Government Efficiency advisory panel, has expressed skepticism about the viability of crewed fighter jets.

Despite the pause to NGAD the development, the Air Force is advancing propulsion technology through its Next Generation Adaptive Propulsion (NGAP) program. On Tuesday, the Air Force announced that GE Aerospace and Pratt & Whitney received expanded contracts for NGAP, increasing their ceiling from $975 million to $3.5 billion each, with work continuing through 2032.

Both companies are competing to develop an adaptive cycle engine, which could significantly enhance thrust and fuel efficiency. However, one vendor is expected to be eliminated in the later stages of development. The Air Force sees the NGAP engine as a potential cost-saving measure, as simplifying NGAD’s propulsion system may help curb the program’s high projected costs.

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